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does cross over of two moving averages signal a buying opportunity in forex trading?

i have read an article which says that it is theoretically unsound position to buy (or sell) when there is a cross over. can math oriented person explain.

Public Response to does cross over of two moving averages signal a buying opportunity in forex trading?

  1. What you are talking about is technical analysis. Everyone has their own theory about how to analyze historical data. Moving averages are just a way to smooth out the radical daily swings of a stock price. To some it gives a comfort to trend watchers. I've done some extensive studies on trending and on what combination of moving averages were the most profitable, even to the point where you could follow a pattern that proved most profitable. BUT! I have learned over the years to invest on research, not technicals! The only tecnhnical I follow is after I decide to invest in a company, and the price trend is up (moving average), I wait for a down day in the market to get in!
  2. In general many technical analists consider a cross over as a strong buy signal. It indicates a strong reverse in trend. The unsoundness concept comes from the idea of being whipsawed. Many times the price will crossover, but then reverse. Technical indicators are by no means perfect indicators. If they were we would all be millionares.
  3. Muncie birder is correct. A crossover in theory signals a buy or sell (depending if it's a crossover to the upside or downside). The problem is that moving averages are lagging indictors. They are just the average price of the assets over "x" amount of days. For example, a 20 day moving average is a graphical representation of the average price of the asset over the past 20 days. But, like I said, they are lagging indicators and I've seen too many times where a crossover reversed a few days later. A better way to look at moving averages is as support and resistence. If you look at price action, you will notice that prices tend to bounce off of the moving average. The shorter the time frame the faster the average moves, the longer the time frame, the more smooth the average.
  4. In the forex market which only has 6 major currency pairs instead of 40000+ stocks. A move of the 8 expMA over the 200 expMa is worthy of consideration. And you can make money either way in forex.